NQ: At the Bell 07/01/2025
MNQ rejected 22890 overnight, breaking through 22840 into 22780 with heavy absorption. Bearish bias unless 22840 is reclaimed.
Pre-market briefing for the Monday RTH open:
📊 MNQ Report
📆 Monday Open: July 01, 2025 @ 09:30 ET
🕓 Analysis Window: Overnight Globex (18:00 → 09:00 ET) + higher timeframe structure
💡 Focus: Order accumulation, intraday structure, and directional bias
🔍 Narrative Summary
Overnight Globex began with early strength toward 22910 but quickly stalled, failing to hold above 22890. A persistent sell-side imbalance took over, driving price progressively lower throughout the session. Key volume absorption occurred between 22890–22840 before giving way, as trading intensified aggressively near 22780 into the 09:00 ET print. Notably, a dense cluster of orders near 22780–22790 suggests responsive activity into a key structural shelf.
This morning’s RTH open aligns with Fed Chair Powell’s 09:30 speech and back-to-back high-impact reports at 09:45 and 10:00, raising the likelihood of sharp reactive price action.
📌 Note: Today is a Red Folder News Day, trade accordingly, manage risk.
📌 Note: First day of Q3 — watch for quarterly positioning and potential repricing.
🔮 Monday Game Plan
📈 Base Case – Responsive Range
Open Inside 22780–22840
→ Expect fades from 22840 into 22780
→ Price likely oscillates around 22800 magnet zone
📉 Breakdown Risk
Loss of 22780
→ Clears Demand/support
→ Exposes 22720 → 22680 → 22575
⚠️ 22575 (4H) = Trend demand zone or structural inflection
→ Watch for volume confirmation — avoid chasing into low-liquidity zones
🚀 Breakout Scenario
Sustained acceptance above 22840
→ Clears Supply/resistance
→ Opens path toward 22890 → 22920
⚠️ 22890 (15min/30min) = Trend supply zone or structural inflection
→ Watch for volume confirmation — avoid chasing into low-liquidity zones
🧊 Key Heatmap Observations
🔹 22780 → 5943 @ 08:30 – Heavy absorption near prior shelf, potential responsive buying
🔹 22790 → 4141 @ 08:30 – Follow-through block buyers into zone below
🔹 22800 → 4308 @ 08:45 – Attempts to reclaim midpoint, met with selling
🔹 22840 → 4311 @ 03:15 – Structural fade zone, capped rally attempts
🔹 22890 → 4534 @ 20:00 (06/30) – Early session resistance, failed to convert
🔹 22890 → 9133 @ 20:00 (06/30) – Initial high-volume stall, key pivot
🔧 Price Clusters by Timeframe
| Timeframe | Price Levels | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 15min | 22890, 22840, 22800, 22790, 22780 | Micro structure zones from Globex fades and reactions |
| 30min | 22890, 22800, 22785 | Consolidation and failed breakout areas |
| 1H | 22820, 22840, 22880 | HVN zones from prior sessions |
| 4H | 22575, 22800, 22825 | Key shelves and balance zone clusters |
| 1D | 22100, 22000, 21900 | Composite macro support ladder |
| 2D | 19200, 19800, 20100, 20400, 21600, 22050 | Long-term mean-reversion zones |
📈 Stay objective. Trade your plan with context.