NQ: At the Bell 07/03/2025
MNQ surged through 22900 overnight, reacting strongly to NFP at 08:30. Bias remains bullish above 22900 with breakout risk above 22940.
Market briefing for the Thursday RTH open:
📊 MNQ Report
📆 Thursday Open: July 03, 2025 @ 09:30 ET
🕓 Analysis Window: Overnight Globex (18:00 → 09:00 ET) + higher timeframe structure
💡 Focus: Order accumulation, intraday structure, and directional bias
🔍 Narrative Summary
MNQ traded higher overnight in a slow grind from the 22860s into the 22930s, culminating in a burst of aggressive buying at 08:30 during NFP and Jobless Claims. Key prints hit at 22900, 22910, and 22920, each with high volume, suggesting an event-driven breakout. The response pushed swiftly to 22940, after which price began to stall.
This rally reclaimed the prior breakdown zone and challenged prior supply zones from 07/02. The presence of stacked interest at 22900–22920 may act as a pivot zone on the session.
📌 Note: Today is a market holiday (Independence Day) and a partial trading day — the market closes early.
📌 Note: Today is a Red Folder News Day — NFP and UC Claims hit at 08:30 AM, trade accordingly, manage risk.
🔮 Thursday Game Plan
📈 Base Case – Responsive Range
Open Inside 22900–22930
→ Expect fades from 22940s into 22900–22880
→ Price likely oscillates around 22900 magnet zone
📉 Breakdown Risk
Loss of 22880
→ Clears Demand/support
→ Exposes 22860 → 22820 → 22800 → 22725
⚠️ 22820 (1H/4H) = Trend demand zone or structural inflection
→ Watch for volume confirmation — avoid chasing into low-liquidity zones
🚀 Breakout Scenario
Sustained acceptance above 22940
→ Clears Supply/resistance
→ Opens path toward 22960 → 22990 → 23040 → 23100
⚠️ 22990 (Projected) = Micro supply zone
→ Watch for volume confirmation — avoid chasing into low-liquidity zones
🧊 Key Heatmap Observations
🔹 22940 → 4644 @ 09:00 – Final surge of buying on early close session
🔹 22920 → 8807 @ 08:30 – High intensity order flow post-NFP
🔹 22910 → 10666 @ 08:30 – Top tick volume spike during news release
🔹 22900 → 10264 @ 08:30 – Heavy absorption or momentum confirmation level
🔹 22890 → 8034 @ 08:45 – Pullback buyers show continuation interest
🔹 22860 → 4044 @ 08:15 – Early Globex demand zone before lift began
🔧 Price Clusters by Timeframe
| Timeframe | Price Levels | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 15min | 22860, 22890, 22900, 22910, 22920 | Event-driven accumulation pre- and post-NFP |
| 30min | 22890, 22905, 22920 | Narrow band demand consolidation |
| 1H | 22800, 22820, 22820, 22840 | Strong reaction zones and HVNs |
| 4H | 22800, 22825, 22725 | Demand shelf and mid-term structure |
| 1D | 22700, 22000, 22100 | Macro composite structure |
| 2D | 19200, 19800, 20100, 20400, 21600, 22050 | Long-term reversion anchors |
📈 Stay objective. Trade your plan with context.